While all of Hollywood is in a tizzy over the upcoming Oscar weekend, most moviegoers are far more interested in following Alice–and Johnny Depp’s Mad Hatter–down the rabbit hole. Tim Burton’s adaptation of Lewis Carroll’s classic Alice in Wonderland is the first movie to bow in 3-D since Avatar changed the rules of the game. And while Burton’s film has already been criticized for its 2-D to 3-D conversion compared to Avatar’s advanced technological efforts, it’s still set to dominate the weekend in a big way. Almost every other studio has left Burton and Depp alone this frame for what is sure to be the duo’s most successful opening weekend ever. The only other new wide release this weekend is Overture’s 2009 Sundance film Brooklyn’s Finest, which is bowing in more than 1900 theaters. Here’s how we predict these films will fare:
1. Alice in Wonderland: $71 million
Disney pulled out all the stops with its beautiful, eye-catching campaign for Burton’s interpretation of Carroll’s world. Too bad the reviews of the film haven’t been as pleasant. It’s unlikely those reviews will hurt the film’s opening weekend, but if audiences agree, it could lead to a severe drop off for the film’s second week. Also working in the movie’s b.o. favor is its 3-D release. Burton and Depp’s last pairing was 2005′s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. That movie bowed to $56.2 million in the middle of summer, and this film is likely to outgross it. More expensive 3-D tickets, plus the absence of other kid-friendly films in market could put the PG-rated release into record-breaking territory. Look for it to beat Warner Bros.’s March record-holder, the 2007 $70 million debut of 300.
2. Shutter Island: $11 million
The other daring duo of director/actor pairings, Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio, has fared quite well in theaters over the past two weeks. The R-rated thriller has already grossed $81 million and is on track to earn another $11 million over the weekend. That’s pretty great for a film that got booted out of its original release date last fall.
3. Brooklyn’s Finest: $10 million
There’s a solid cast to this hard-boiled drama about corrupt police offices. Between Richard Gere, Ethan Hawke and Wesley Snipes it’s not a bad ensemble. But this film from director Antoine Fuqua (Training Day) has been sitting on a shelf for more than a year. The studio spent a good portion of the time redoing the ending that originally screened at Sundance. How it fares this weekend is a real wild card. Shutter Island is attracting the same audience, and it’s a better movie with some legs still in it. I’ll guess a $10 million debut, but this one could get lost in the mix.
4. Cop Out: $9 million
It’ s the only comedy in theaters, so Cop Out could luck out and only drop 50% its second weekend in theaters. That would be good news for the Kevin Smith film starring Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis, which bowed last frame to dismal reviews and only $18 million in box office receipts. If no one is willing to give the movie a second chance, the R-rated horror film The Crazies could wind up filling this slot.
5. Avatar: $7.5 million
This is the weekend Avatar will see its first real drop in 12 weeks of release. Twentieth Century Fox is amazed they were able to hold on to the 695 3-D screens that will still show their spectacle. Too bad they will still be hurt by IMAX converting its theaters over to Alice in Wonderland. Nonetheless, no one is crying for James Cameron. The guy has racked up over $700 million in domestic grosses and could very well walk away with the Best Picture Oscar this Sunday.
wow if Burton can make that OW will he ever go back to making quality films?
Cop Out is the worst comedy since Jersey Girl. It’s that bad.
Alice can explore my “Wonderland”.
Is there enough room for her and the gerbil that you’ve already got in there?
Johnny Depp is dressed exactly like a clown for his newest roll. But it’s quite appropriate as Tim Burton is a wildly inconsistent ringmaster, only able to fill the bleachers with poor suckers about to realize all they are getting is a juggling act (and Bozo). ZZZzzzz
So happy to see Avatar dropping.
That movie is such a fake.
It didn’t even make money after you factor in production costs.
Hey Nerwen – I’m no big Avatar fan, but it certainly made money. It’s currently at over 2.5 BILLION worldwide, which means even with the highest production price estimates, it still made around 2 BILLION. Not a great movie, but still by far the most profitable of all time..
It didn’t even make money after you factor in production costs.
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I’m sorry, but what on earth are you smoking? It cost, what, like $300 million to make? It’s made more than $2.5 billion worldwide. How is that not making money, even when you consider marketing costs. In order for a movie to be “profitable,” it needs to recoup roughly twice what it cost to make. Even if you roughly guess that Avatar cost $500 million for EVERYTHING, production and marketing, that’s still a BILLION AND A HALF in profit, and counting.
In other words, you’re completely ignorant.
what in the world are you talking about Nerwen? it cost about 400 million to make Avatar, including production and marketing, i’d say 2.55 billion and counting covers it. let’s put this in perspective, twilight New Moon made 707 million world wide, 296 in the US alone, while Avatar has made 712 million as of yesterday in the US alone
Burton and Depp’s last pairing was ‘Sweeney Todd’ in 2007…
Do some research!!
And Shutter Island didn’t get “booted” out of it’s original date!!…
Who writes this B.S.??
It did. It was supposed to come out back in October to be able to race for all the awards, but they changed the date to February.
Getting “booted” from it’s original date implies it got shelved because it was bad or the studio was afraid of competition.
Neither was the case.
Did the last Harry Potter get “booted” from November to July??? NO!! The studio decided it was a better slot for financial reasons. Same with Shutter Island.
It was an awesome movie (it will get the respect it deserves in years to come, just like Fight Club) and will make the studio a nice profit.
But hey, thanks for the info that everybody already knew Lucia!
Congrats… You get a cookie!!
Matt1 while you may be correct, you don’t have to be rude.
Actually Matt, nobody really knows WHY it got moved. Naturally the studio is never going to cop to it being because of lack of quality, but the truth is, the film has received mediocre reviews for a Marty flick. Its VERY likely that once they realized it didn’t have much of a chance at the Oscars, the moved it from its original “awards season” slot to early 2010, thus getting it the hell away from Avatar and into a time period normally reserved for lesser films. If this is true, in my mind that’s “getting booted” – ie, moving a film out of concern that it could not compete. This is WHY people are pleased with its current performance. Obviously it was a wise move.
Normally I don’t respond to Internet loudmouths, but I just couldn’t resist with you.
i was just thinking that as I read this…
No kidding. It was fairly well received critically, too.
Agreed, Sweeney Todd, where is the love? Loved that film!
Just FYI, the last Burton/Depp film was Sweeney Todd, not Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
Also, Corpse Bride came out after Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, as well. So this is the third since then. Geez
Yeah, Sweeney Todd was sort of big in my circles, so that movie immediately came to my mind. Also, crazy musical.
Cop Out was very funny!!! Loved it!!!
Seriously!! You are sitting right in front of a computer! I think you can easily go on imdb and find out when Burton and Depp last paired up! Not that hard! You work for an entertainment magazine so you should know the info for certain things! It is kind of sad that I could write a better entry on here and I am only in college! Please people at EW get your info right!! there are so many of you that don’t know how to spell people’s names or even know the last Depp/Burton movie!!
alice is gonna gross way less than that if the word of mouth gets award fast about how bad it actually is for me it was a disappointment-burton and depp should start seeing other people
The EW magazine’s 20th issue that came out last Friday, lists all the movies Tim Burton and Johnny Depp have made together. So shame on this columnist for not reading the magazine that her own company puts on every week.
I thought this movie was rated G?
I was watching the trailer via internet TV ( LoggTV.com ) Johnny Depp make-up and costumes look always the same from his other movies
Tim Burton and Johnny Depp’s “Alice in Wonderland” 3D looks hilarious and visually stunning! My prediction … it’s gonna rock the movie box office. And, it deserves too! It’s all about ENTERTAINMENT.
It’s a shame – Burton had a real opportunity to make a female-driven fantasy film that a lot of people were going to see (a rarity in Hollywood), and he blew it by relying more on CGI than imaginative, quality storytelling.
that seemed to serve avatar well, so maybe he thought he’d get lightning in a bottle again? *shrugs*
Saw it last night and I loved it!!
I think 71 million is too high. Id guess somewhere in the 50′s
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You have a major, major oops in your article. Replace Charlie and the Chocolate Factory with Sweeney Todd. And even if you were talking about family films, you’re STILL wrong (in that case, it’s Corpse Bride).
I think you’re in the right ballpark, though. 3D and IMAX will help it, and it’s been getting serious marketing on TV, especially children’s channels. It may drop next week depending on word of mouth, but it’s the only game in town now.
I saw Alice in Wonderland and liked it a lot, but i still think the original was a wee bit better.
I saw it last night in 3D. Not sure what I expected it to be, but I thought it was pretty good. I thought Helen Carter did really, really well, and of course, Johnny kills any role he portrays.