Mar 19 2010 06:31 AM ET

Box office preview: 'Alice' likely to hold off new releases for a third weekend

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wonderlandImage Credit: DisneyLast weekend Matt Damon and Robert Pattinson couldn’t stand up to Alice in Wonderland. Three new releases will try again this frame and all are unlikely to topple Tim Burton’s most successful outing of his career. The 3-D fantasy adventure starring Johnny Depp has already grossed over $226 million and will likely add more than $30 million more to its cume at the end of this weekend. The new releases fighting for some box office coin this weekend include: Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler in Bounty Hunter; Fox’s adaptation of the best-selling book Diary of a Wimpy Kid and the Jude Law-Forrest Whitaker drama Repo Men. Read on for my predictions.

1. Alice in Wonderland: $34 million

Wednesday marked the first day since Alice in Wonderland opened that the movie grossed less than $6 million during the middle of the week. That’s astounding for a film that’s been in theaters for close to three weeks. Its strong performance does not portend good things to come for next weekend’s How To Train Your Dragon which will be fighting to take 3-D screens from Disney’s Alice.

2. The Bounty Hunter: $22 million

Sony Pictures seems to be hiding this Gerard Butler-Jennifer Aniston actioner from critics. Those few who have seen it, including EW, aren’t fans, but that will mean little when it comes to this weekend. The star power of the duo will far outweigh the critical merit of the movie and this weekend, Bounty Hunter is likely to be the best-performing new release of the bunch.

3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: $15 million

Jeff Kinney’s best-selling novel is practically a bible with boys under-12. For the author’s depiction of middle school is not only accurate but deliciously funny. The movie from director Thor Freudenthal (Hotel for Dogs) seems to have captured the same essence as the book. Only so far the film is tracking well with only his core audience, young boys. Hopefully strong word-of-mouth over the weeks to come will keep it in theaters.

4. Repo Men: $10 million

This Jude Law-Forest Whitaker R-rated action-thriller is trying to lure in the grown-up male audience not interested in The Bounty Hunter. Unfortunately, the lack of star power is not doing much to bring them in. Universal didn’t score very well with Green Zone last weekend and this weekend won’t be much better in terms of grosses hauled in at the box office. Luckily for Universal, Repo Men is relatively inexpensive with a budget in the $30 million range.

5. Green Zone: $7 million

Hopefully, this Matt Damon-starrer will fall only 50 percent this weekend. But even then the film will have only earned $26 million in 10 days.

Also opening, the Kristen Stewart, Dakota Fanning-starring rock biopic The Runaways in 244 theaters while the Ben Stiller indie drama Greenberg will bow in three theaters.

Comments (38 total) Add your comment
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  • KC

    Jennifer Aniston will have yet another flop to put another notch in her belt with.
    When will the reality set in that she isn’t going to be a big movie start?
    Go back to television.

    • Yep

      Agreed, she really is only a TV star and nothing else.

      No way, this movie is going to make over 20 million as it’s bad on so many levels.

      I would change Repo Men figures with hers.

      Article Note: Forest Whitaker has won an Oscar so he is star power!

      • rerun

        F Murray Abraham, Marcia Gay Harden, Geoffrey Rush and Adrien Brody have won Oscars too- Oscar does not equal star power. Repo Men will be LUCKY with $10 million.

      • Dawn

        Julia Roberts has an Oscar and look at how bad Duplicity flopped. Having an Oscar doesn’t guarantee hit movies.

      • yep

        Did we all Forget Cuba Gooding Jr., after his oscar he never had another hit. So going by that they have won an oscar is a weak reason to think that they are going to have a hit on their hands.

    • Wil

      That makes me sad cause I love Jennifer Aniston :/
      But, you’re probably right. However, Gerard Butler has an ok track record for romantic comedies doesn’t he?

  • KellyK

    I wouldn’t be surprised if The Bounty Hunter didn’t do well. There’s no book (or video game) to draw in a fan base, and I just don’t think that many people are going to pay $12 just to see Jennifer Aniston or Gerard Butler. Read about them online, sure, but go see them? She’s not that hot, and Gerard’s voice is incredibly irritating.

    • Dawn

      People said the same thing about Gerry and Katherine Heigl and look at how much TUT made opening weekend.

  • Tera

    Sorry Kc but Jen IS a big movie star. She should do other types of films but when she is in a film that has a wide audience the film is a success. Films don’t sell because of their stars, Matt Damon has had three flops in a row. Non of his last three films have even gotten its budget back. Does that mean Matt should retire. FYI Love happens did make more than its production budget domestically so its not considered a flop even if its not a hit.

    • KC

      She is not a BIG movie star. Most of her movies she toplines flop.
      She got lucky with Marley and Me because of the book. She is not the draw.

      • Let be honest

        She is not a BIG movie star. She will always be remembered as Rachel from Friends and being married to Brad Pitt that is all.

        Plus she clings onto every leading actor she works with since Brad which is not a good look.

        I’m sure she is a nice lady but she is not a BIG movie star. Her films are just about watchable not major hits and the best performance of Marley and Me was the dog.

        It’s ok to read about her but to watch her, I think not.

      • Chris

        You underestimate her star power. This movie will be a hit. She is America’s Sweetheart.

      • Brett

        I don’t know why you guys are debating if she is a “BIG” movie star or not. What do you qualify as “BIG”? She’s been in the cult classic ‘Office Space’, and the hits ‘Bruce Almighty’, ‘Along Came Polly’, ‘Rumor Has It’, ‘Friends With Money’, ‘The Break Up’, ‘Marley and Me’, ‘He’s Just Not That Into You’, and ‘Love Happens’. All of these movies made well over what they cost to make. Struggling actors would DIE for a career like hers. Tell me, once again, how she isn’t a “BIG” movie star?

      • Fridge

        Good point, but the cult classic ‘Office Space’ is a cult classic regardless if Aniston would have been in it. You could have put any other actress in that role and the film would have done just as well. As for ‘Bruce Almighty’, ‘Along Came Polly’, ‘Rumor Has It’, ‘Friends With Money’, ‘The Break Up’, ‘Marley and Me’, ‘He’s Just Not That Into You’, and ‘Love Happens’ look at the supporting cast. Jennifer Aniston is not a BIG movie star because she can’t draw people into a movie, simply beause of HER star power alone. She needs an amazing supporting cast to do that for her. Why doesn’t she take a page out of Courtney Cox’s book and stick with her strong point–TV comedy. Cox has been in movies, but none that I would call stellar, memorable roles. However, look at her TV career. Not all actors are meant to be big screen actors, and Aniston is one of them.

  • Rob

    Switch the totals for BH and DofWK cause there is not another kids movie out there and I think it will do good business.

    • almost scared

      um… the number 1 movie is a kids movie. dofwk wont do that well with alice still going strong.

  • Tiffany

    Jen Aniston is not a movie star. She was great on Friends, but her acting in movie roles are pretty bad. She always play the same character in every movie. The only reason some of her movies made big bucks because of the leading actors, i.e. jim carrey, vince vaughn, ben stiler. Also, her movies have so much advertising and publicity. Like the bounty hunter, i see ads for it everywhere a month ago. I agree she should go back to t.v. like courtney cox or take some serious acting classes. I think she looks great and have a great bod, but she isn’t that beautiful. She’s more plain jane or girls next door. Again i loved her on Friends not in the big screen.

    • Jeri

      Well, then why give Cameron Diaz any film roles? All movies that she top-lines are bombs, and her only hits are those with strong ensemble casts where her role could have been played by anyone.

  • Nerwen Aldarion

    The Bounty Hunter will make 20 million, don’t underestimate women who flock to Romantic Comedies, who idolize Jennifer Aniston and love to drool over Gerard Butler. Those who think Bounty Hunter will do badly are sadly delusional

  • W!

    I just found out that ‘Alice in Wonderland’is rated PG for Fantasy\violence involing scary images…and for images of a catepillar smoking! im not joking!

    • Matt

      In fairness, that caterpillar ain’t smoking tobacco.

      • Jess

        Oooh… edgy!

  • Mandy

    Aniston is a movie star, but if she were ever going to bring in blockbuster returns on her own, it would’ve happened by now. Her biggest hit was “Marley & Me,” and let’s face it: Most people went to see the cute dog. Frankly, I don’t think she chooses roles very well. “The Bounty Hunter” looks like the latest in a series of subpar scripts Aniston’s gotten entangled with. She may not be an Oscar-caliber actress, but she does what she does well enough to star in better movies than she does.

    • Jess

      Agree – her choices are horrible and she is actually capable of so much better. Re: bad choices, same seems to be true of Reese Witherspoon – yet another lame romantic comedy down the pike for her… why?

  • Jose

    The ghost Writer opened in my local theater, anyone here recomend it?

    • Jason

      Is that the one where Nicholas Cage rides around on a motorcycle with his head on fire?

  • bagabou

    It’s like HOllywood and Jennifer herself want the public so badly to consider her a movie actress, but she’s not. Her movies that did do well are because of Jim Carrey, Ben Stiller and a dog. I wish Hollywood would get the hint and stop casting her, if she could act (like Matt Damon), I would excuse her last 3 bombs, but she can’t, she’s Rachel always and has no range. Maybe a nice lady, but she has no big-screen potential (without a bigger star) because at 41 (dinosaur in Hollywood) she would have made it big on her own by now (see Sandra B)

  • anonymous

    Ahh Jennifer, that move of putting your career/movies before Brad/family…well, how’s that working out for you??!!!

  • jillyro

    I love how one critic on Rotten Tomatoes said about Jennifer Aniston “flicking your hair around is NOT acting!!” and that she has maybe 3 expressions, all from her Friends days. This movie and her performance sound like an early razzie contender! Hint, hint to Hollywood, “America’s Sweetheart” career is turning sour. Time to give it up.

  • Jason

    Wait – so The Bounty Hunter isn’t about The Fett? Son of a…

  • Victor Eloy

    well, maybe she was too ambitious and she (Aniston) never was able to see her acting limits…
    so that’s why she didn’t please Brad by giving kids to her….
    to be honest, I loved her in friends, she was so funny, SHE WAS GREAT AT 30 ROCK AS Liz Lemmons crazy friend!!!!
    but not for movies, I am sorry , Jen, though I find you a lil’ shallow and self centered, I like you

  • Victor Eloy

    but Look at Angelina who is a real movie star, and she is 7 years years younger had 6 kids, and Oscar and her ex husband, and now she is in Venice filming with superstar Johnny Depp. being a movie Star is not meant to be for everyobe, go back to TV, look how great Courtney is doing at Cougar Town!

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