Image Credit: Industrial Light & Magic/MarvelTwo summers ago, Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight broke all kinds of records with its $158 million opening weekend. Now Marvel is trying to beat that number with a sequel of its own. But will the Jon Favreau’s Iron Man 2 be able to surpass the mania surrounding The Dark Knight? Many prognosticators think so. And with the Robert Downey Jr.-toplined movie opening in a massive 4,380 locations, the screen availability is certainly there to help Iron Man 2 surpass Dark Knight‘s record. (Dark Knight opened in 4,366 theaters, by comparison.) But where Dark Knight scored glowing reviews, critics aren’t all that hot on Iron Man 2. (Our own Lisa Schwarzbaum gave the movie a C+.) Still, the movie is swallowing up everything in its path, so this weekend’s grosses will be interesting to watch — whether Iron Man‘s sequel turns out to be a record-breaker.
1. Iron Man 2: $150 million
I just don’t think it’s going to reach The Dark Knight’s numbers. I could be wrong, and considering the movie is shorter than Christopher Nolan’s Batman Begins sequel, I may very well be. But even though the hype is there for Iron Man 2, we have to remember that one of the main reasons people of all stripes showed up to Dark Knight was to see Heath Ledger’s final performance. That macabre interest isn’t here for Iron Man 2. Still, a $150 million opening is nothing to sneeze at: The movie has already grossed $121 million internationally so there’s absolutely no question it will be a giant hit.
2. Nightmare on Elm Street: $10 million
The Freddy Krueger remake will likely fall fast and hard this weekend. I don’t think a 70 percent drop is out of the question, considering both the competition from Iron Man and the weak C+ audiences gave it in its opening weekend. That poor Cinemascore means word-of-mouth on the film is probably dreadful.
3. How to Train Your Dragon: $6 million
Expect a 40 percent drop for Dragon this week. Both Iron Man 2 and Mother’s Day will likely eat into this audience more so than any other weekend, but considering how well it has performed since it debuted seven weeks ago, the movie still has momentum. Another $6 million will put it at $200 million – not bad at all.
4. The Back-Up Plan: $3.7 million
Despite the tepid response to this romantic comedy, it is Mother’s Day this weekend. And with Letters to Juliet not opening for another seven days, The Back-Up Plan may be the de facto choice for those looking to take mom to the cineplex. As such, this movie might only drop 40 percent its third weekend in theaters. That would put the Jennifer Lopez-starrer at $30 million.
5. Date Night: $3.5 million
This Steve Carell-Tina Fey comedy has done a remarkable job staying in theaters. I do think this movie will experience a 50 percent drop this weekend. That would put the movie’s cume at close to $80 million, which is pretty great for a film that generated lukewarm reviews from critics.
Also opening this weekend is the limited run of the documentary Babies. The movie, which explores the first year of life of four babies in different parts of the world, will open in 529 theaters across the country, obviously targeting mothers and their offspring.
It won’t beat TDK’s total domestic amount (word of mouth just won’t be that good), but by this point Paramount would be disappointed if it DIDN’T get the opening weekend crown.
It may or may not beat Dark Knight, but most people including geeked out fans see it as a filler movie with no real story. Christopher Nolan developed a great story for Dark Knight, while Iron Man 2 seems to be destined for the subtitle “The Quest For More Cash”
I hope it doesn’t set a record, I don’t think it deserves it. it was an OK movie but IMO it wasn’t nearly as good as the first, and the storyline was pretty crappy. I don’t think Mickey Rourke was all that great as the bad guy either. Russian bad guys are way over played in films and his accent was pretty ridiculous (they almost need subtitles).
Personally, I thought The Dark Knight was a bloated, contrived and frankly boring film. The only reason I went to see it was to see “The Performance That Killed Heath Ledger”. That’s why my mother and sister also wanted to see it. They’ve never watched a Batman film in their lives nor have they ever set eyes on an issue of his comic but they sat through that whole drawn out snorefest.
Fact 1: If Heath Ledger did not die after the making of Dark Knight, it would have grossed HALF of what it eventually did.
Fact 2: If Avatar had not been filmed in 3D, it would have grossed HALF of what it eventually did.
We are SO on the same mindset! Thank you for keeping it real! Was The Dark Knight the WORST superhero movie ever? No, that title is probably best reserved for Spider-Man 3. But yes, there were mitigating factors that bloated the revenue for both that movie AND Avatar.
The Dark Knight is overrated. And the whole fanboy squad is seemingly afraid to admit that because they think their credibility will go away. The movie was a good film. It had a great performance by Ledger. But…. It has a lot of plot holes. It is too long for it’s own good. And it is joyless. It’s not a movie most people will want to see over and over. And for a comic book film, where was the action? We get one truck flipping sequence and Batman course correcting a bike against a wall? Oh yeah and a boring sequence where people are debating to push a button and blow up a ferry… Again, it was good. But best ever? No.
I’d put Spider-Man 2, BTAS, (maybe X2, I haven’t seen it in a while) and Batman Begins over The Dark Knight. TDK was good but it wasn’t a masterpiece. I don’t think it’s as overrated as Avatar is, though.
Well put, ****, as your comment lives up to your name: a steaming pile of fermenting ****. There was a lot more to TDK’s hype than Ledger’s death, specifically the awestruck responses to his actual performance; you know, the reason he was chosen for the role and all those awards that would have come his way regardless of his tombstone. You seem like a hipster who espouses the inevitable backlash for any pop culture phenomenon. Your existence is bloated and contrived, full of self-fellating remarks and gestures in a pointless and counterintuitive conquest to be anything but boring. Go drink a PBR and pat yourself on the back some more, for you have succeeded at nothing.
I don’t know if TDK would have done “HALF” the business it did if Ledger had not died, but you can’t discount his death as a factor. Same is true for Avatar being released in 3D – it’s already been reported that most of its money came from the inflated prices for 3D screenings.
I don’t think Matt Tritton discounted Ledger’s death as a hype factor, he just said there was a lot more to TDK’s hype machine. People were creaming their jeans over the movie long before he died; given the success of Batman Begins, the hype surrounding his performance, and the fact that the Joker was showing up in the grittier rebooted Batman franchise. I was creaming myself, but I suffer from priapism and a fondness for ecstasy. Aside from that, I think it was the only well-reasoned response that Matt Tritton has ever posted; he normally comes off as a trolling numbskull.
If I could rid the world of hipsters I would. I would not even have to think twice. I cannot take their constant angst. At least the goth movement of the late 90′s made it bluntly apparent they wanted to die by their style of dress and music. Hipsters act like goths but could never pull it off because they are always looking for acceptance while trying hard to rebel. They are complete douches. Go but tighter jeans at a thrift store you lame turd sandwiches.
TDK was an overrated piece of trash.
Just an opinion. Waiting for THOR.
Yeah…TDK ‘sucked’ but Thor is going to be a work of cinema genius. Crawl back under your rock.
People came to see Ledger as the Joker and Batman vs the Joker, they didn’t see it just because Ledger died. The ‘macabre’ factor is really exaggerated. That doesn’t translate into a billion dollar movie.
Oh please. Observes:
PAM: Hi Carol, hi Jan, did you hear that Heath Ledger fella died yesterday?
CAROL: I know, that so tragic, right? So young…
JAN: Wasn’t he in that gay cowboy film?
PAM: Yes but he almost won an oscar for that so you know he’s good.
CAROL: I heard he’s going to win an oscar after his death for this role in that Batman film.
PAM: They say that’s why he died, he’s a method actor and they really get into character and he was playing a crazy person and well, ya know.
JAN: Was he really that good?!
CAROL: Well, people who have seen the film say it’s better than Jack Nicholson’s role as the Joker.
JAN: No! Not better than Jack Nicholson?!?
PAM: That’s what they say.
JAN: Well, then girls lets go watch it in our lunch break. I wanna see this performance that killed Heath Ledger. It must have been terribly good…for it to have killed him and all.
CAROL: Okay, let’s go.
You said it yourself. They heard he was good, so they went to see him. Not hard to tell the difference.
I hope it breaks it casue i like RDJ but in the end it will come close but won’t break it.
TDK came out shortly after ledger’s death but was not his last performance, that would be The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus which was somewhat of a dud at the box office, get your facts straight.
It’s the reason he died though. His role as the Joker, was too emotionally and psychologically taxing and he didn’t sleep for a month and well, he loved prescription drugs, so…
Even Christopher Nolan dispelled those rumors. He said that Ledger showed up to the set in a good mood every day. He had the drug problems longs before he was cast as the Joker. Yeah, the role got to him, and even Nicholson said that it was disturbing to play someone who derived so much maniacal glee from destroying people. It may have triggered a relapse, but the drug problem was already there. Saying that playing the Joker killed Ledger is like saying that DJ AM died in a plane crash.
Stop feeding the rumor mill Hamm!!
It’s idiots like you that give people who comment on sites like this a bad name!
You are a misinformed moron!!
Now…
Bring on the comments from people who hate my comment and the cycle will continue ’til the end of time!!
So are you hating on Hamm or Matt Tritton, or both? You gotta make your issues clear if you’re gonna make slights against strangers. Like this: I think all 3 of you are douchebags.
It was his last complete performance.
Don’t you mean that Babies is bowing this weekend? You didn’t meet your “bow” quota for this article.
OMG I’m so with you on that. I HATE seeing that as a substitute for “release date” or “opens on” in every movie related article!
This person uses the term excessively in her articles. I can’t read about a new movie coming out on EW without being annoyed!
So what you’re saying is Paramount’s marketing folks should have killed Gwyneth Paltrow, preferably in a grisly manner.
Well, ideally, it should have been Mickey Rourke to “match” the formula of TDK.
As much as I want Iron Man 2 to blow away expectations, I know that it will always pale to that overhyped, overrated crapfest that was The Dark Knight. And you are correct, the main draw to that movie was Heath Ledger’s “final film” appearance (not really if you count Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus) and his interpretation of The Joker (which also was overhyped IMO). I’d rather sit through a “mediocre” RDJ movie than listen to close to two hours of Christian Bale struggling to enunciate his words and in need of a Ricola.
ITA! In desperate need of a Ricola and an Exlax.
Are you kidding me? Dark Knight was a great movie, and Iron Man 2 is just horrible. There’s practically no decent story line and the antagonist is not even worth watching. Ridiculous
TDK had several things going for it that IM2 doesn’t – a much better known cast of characters; a more thoughtful and dramatic storyline; a great cast of established actors that included Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman; and the death of Heath Ledger shortly before the film’s opening.
Iron Man has Robert Downey Jr, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Don Cheadle. The first one had Jeff Bridges and Terrence Howard. Are you calling these actors not established? All of them have either won Oscars, or been nominated for them. What does Christian Bale bring to the table? A People’s Choice Award?
NO I don’t think it is. I went to go see the dark knight because i heard it was a great film and not because of heath ledger death,To be honest I didn’t care about his death I didn’t know him.
Nah, Iron Man was a good movie but TDK had all kinds of hype following it. I don’t see Iron Man 2 beating it either.
You suck Nerwen
Myself and two of my friends Triple P`d Nerwen last week…
How was it Flack?
Well she was certainly dirty.
No hesitation at putting it in her mouth right after it came out the backside….
And how was the Pink Taco?
Well it smelled terrible but it was pretty tight…
Iron Man 2 probably won’t even be the biggest movie of 2010, so no it won’t beat TDK.
Who cares if it beats TDK or not?
Shouldn’t we be more concerned if the quality of the movie beats, meets, or equals that of the better comic book movies (and/or movies in general)?
Concerned “with” it beating, meeting, equaling other movies.
It may or may not beat the Dark Knight, but either way it will slaughter the box office. I’m planning on seeing it tomorrow even though the reviews haven’t been spectacular.
To Nathan-
And who will be the biggest movie of 2010?? Prince of Persia? Last Airbender? LMAO, those two won’t even sniff 200 million. The rest of the summer is barren, just like last year. Unless Avatar 2 or Batman 3 miraculously come out this year, expect IM2 to be the biggest movie of the year.
Toy Story 3 or the 3rd Twilight movie could beat it.
I don’t think the third Twilight movie will beat it. Summer popcorn flicks tend to beat swoony little teenage girl flicks.
Twilight hasn’t even crossed the 300 mil mark domestically yet. It won’t beat it. But I think there’s a good chance Shrek 4 or Toy Story 3 could do it. It’s summer and school’s out, families will be going to the movies.
It doesn’t matter if it breaks TDK’s single weekend record. It won’t come close to the overall amount of money made by TDK because people went back to see that movie 2 or 3 times. People will only see this movie once, realize it isn’t all that great, and wait for it on DVD.
I don’t think anyone expects it to beat TDK’s overall record. Of course, I don’t think anyone expected “Avatar” to be the huge success it was, either.
This movie deserves every cent it makes. I saw it last week in Guadalajara, Mexico in IMAX and it is awesome! Lisa Shwarzbaum is a twit for giving it a C-grade. I give it a solid A! Go get in line!