Image Credit: Jasin BolandIt will a nostalgia-fest at the box office this weekend, and Hollywood is hoping moviegoers will yearn to relive the decade of big hair and acid-wash jeans. Audiences over 30 are going to feel like they’ve headed back in time as soon as they open up their weekend newspapers to check showtimes — even if both The A-Team reboot and The Karate Kid remake are not set in the 1980s. (And yes, only people over 30 actually still get weekend newspapers.) Anyway, it’s up to these two reboots to, well, reboot a summer that has been trending far behind last year’s and those preceding it. Hollywood is hopeful both films can redeem the box office, but both still have some stiff competition. The two new releases need to post higher numbers than those produced by The Hangover‘s second weekend in release last year and Up’s third weekend, which generated $30 million. If they can do so, then Hollywood will finally have an weekend that dominates one from last summer.
Read on for my predictions.
1. The Karate Kid:$32 million
Set in China, and co-produced with the Chinese government, this film marks the career launch of Will Smith’s heir Jaden, who we last saw in 2006′s The Pursuit of Happyness. Interest is high with kids and their parents. The only thing limiting the film’s playability is its 140-minute run time, which seems excessive for a movie with an 11-year old as its star. If the film doesn’t hit number one, the film’s length will surely be the culprit.
2. The A-Team: $30 million
Twentieth Century Fox is trying to manage expectations, saying the film is likely to open similarly to the most recent Die Hard, which bowed to $33 million in 2007 and went on to earn over $130 million domestically. I think this action romp is a lot more fun than the trailers suggest. The question is, do moviegoers have a burning desire to see these four guys (Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Sharlto Copley) on screen together? They update their 1980s-era characters well, staying true to the fun of the original series. And if they can maintain the buzz over the weekend, Fox will have a hit on their hands. The movie is sure to win Friday night. But I believe it will be overtaken Saturday by the families headed for Karate Kid.
3. Shrek Forever After: $15 million
With $191 million in its coffers as of Wednesday, Shrek Forever After is destined to cross the $200 million mark this weekend. Another 40 percent drop will add $15 million to its cume, but the movie really has only one more week to reap the dollars before Toy Story 3 comes gunning for its audience. The latest Pixar film will be sure to steal any of Shrek’s remaining coin, meaning this final installment of the green ogre series is likely destined to be the poorest grosser of the bunch. Bet Dreamworks Animation never expected that to happen.
4. Get Him to the Greek: $10 million
If this essential sequel to Forgetting Sarah Marshall holds in as well as its predecessor, then it will likely fall 40 percent for the weekend. That will put the R-rated comedy with the $40 million budget at close to $40 million for its first two weeks of release.
5. Killers: $6 million
This brutally reviewed action comedy is likely to lose 60 percent of its value it’s second weekend in theaters.
If you’re not interested in any of the wide releases, IFC will release the Joan Rivers documentary Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work on seven screens while Roadside Attractions will bow the Sundance fave Winter’s Bone on four.
The two new movies will probably both do fine, but I still just don’t get much *excitement* from people over this summer’s offerings. Like, if they go see a movie, it’s because there’s nothing else out. It’s not that they have a burning desire to see that particular movie.
Other than Iron Man, which has already made most of its run, there are two and only two movies that consistently seem to get people excited: Toy Story 3 and Inception. I’m sure a Hangover-type dark horse hit will arrive at some point, but I couldn’t tell you what it’ll be.
my pick for the surprise hit is dinner for schmucks.
Go see the original French film not this Hollywood remake.
I concur.
I concur with Kate not the spam dropper.
Another weekend with nothing interesting in theatres. This summer is horrible.
Check out next summer though – it will be the opposite problem we are having this year: too much to choose from instead of not enough.
scream 4 – apr 15
Thor – may 6
pirates 4 – may 20
hangover 2 – may 26
kung fu panda 2 – May 27
x-men first class – june 3
fast and the furious 5 – June 10
green lantern – june 17
transformers 3 – july 11
harry potter and the deathly hallows 2 – July 15
captain america – july 22
the smurfs – july 29
cowboys and aliens – July 29
More interested in Winter’s Bone, also, if Karate Kid dissapoints, it wouldn’t be because of its run time, but because a lack of interest in the movie that most of the people I know are displaying over it.
Can’t WAIT for Winter’s Bone. Finally a sincere, quality, regionally authentic film that doesn’t have a smug Hollywood studio looking down on any character with a vaguely Southern sounding accent.
I haven’t heard anyone at work talking about either of the new movies releases for the weekend and I work with some serious movie buffs. If I see a movie this weekend, which I doubt, it will be the family film, The Karate Kid.
The Karate Kid remake looks like nails on a chalkboard. Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith have zero on screen chemistry, Smith can’t act, Chan’s past his prime, the action looks laughable and the story is…nothing like the original. This is coming from a twenty year old who’s seen the original once during an eighties night party lol I can’t imagine it doing well at all other then maybe by default because of a lack of competition.
You got all that from the trailer?
You’re an idiot who trashes a movie without ever even seeing it first. Your integrity = zero. GET A CLUE already. And quit PMS-ing about something you know NOTHING about. Your uneducated uninformed whining is like nails on a chalkboard. PERIOD.
“This film marks the career launch of Will Smith’s heir Jaden, who we last saw in 2006′s The Pursuit of Happyness.”
Nope. Jaden’s most recent film was “The Day The Earth Stood Still” in 2008. Fact checking must be a lost art in journalism of the 21st Century. Sloppy and lazy writing.
Is it so hard to open an internet window and type in imdb.com?
The kid was just AWFUL in that awful movie too. I didn’t see “Happyness” but can only imagine he was just as bad if not worse in that. Hey kid, just ’cause your parents are actors doesn’t mean squat. Go back to the playground!
Exactly – I’m no entertainment journalist, but even I vaguely remembered him being in that movie, and it would’ve only taken 30 seconds to confirm. And don’t they proofread their own articles before hitting ‘send?’ First sentence: “It will a nostalgia-fest.”
Wasn’t Jaden in that HORRIBLE remake of the Day the Earth Stood Still where he proved he could not act?
Horrible Horrible..do not go see the Karate Kid…this is the Kung Fu kid..this aint about karate..stop it hollywood!!
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I can care less about the karate kid remake number what? 4? The A team looks fun! What is it rated? If pg-13 then it will smash everything. I still think it will do more like 50 million. People are dying for a good movie this summer and everything else is failing. ANd yes im sure they did think this shrek would not do that well. It still made a good profit so why would they complain? Jaden was good in happiness moron…myron
It also depends of the number of the screens. For example “Get Him to the Greek” had highest per screen average last week, it still landed on the second place, because it had almost 2000 screens less than Shrek.
Can care less or couldn’t care less? There is a difference.
BREAKING NEWS: SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT TO BREAK BREAKING DAWN INTO 2 PARTS WITH THE FIRST ONE TO BE RELEASED IN 11/18/2011. (I know its of topic, but I wanted to break the news before EW, even if it is bad news. Collider.com)
If it’s “off topic” and “bad news” why are you reporting it here, tool?
way WAY off topic and we revoke your man card
The only movies I’m excited for are The A-Team, Toy Story 3, Inception, Salt, and Dinner for Schmucks. I recently saw the indie film ‘Please Give’ with Catherine Keener, and it was terrific. I hope some good indie films get released this Summer as well, like ‘The Hurt Locker’ last Summer. I saw it three times in the theaters! Such a good movie.
Well, we have films such as Winter’s Bone and The Kids Are All Right to look forward to.
The Kids are all right looks so good, its the only movie I’m really excited about other than toy story and inception, I just hope it is screened outside of the usual small release cities New York, San Fran, and L.A.
Honestly cannot believe that you believe “Karate” is projected to do $32M. Jaden Smith is NOT A PROVEN STAR and its a remake of a movie no one asked to be remade.
Yeah, but it’s a new movie, featuring a kid (so if parents are looking to take the kids to a movie and have already seen “Shrek”, then “Kid” will probably get their business). Jackie Chan’s still a draw, even if Will’s androgynous, whining offspring is the lead. I’ll wait for it to hit cable so I can flip back and forth and only watch the scenes with Taraji P. Henson as the kid’s mother.
It’s a kiddie flick. It’s posible. Would I watch it? Nope!
Average viewers come in 3 for children movies. That’s why they make so much money. I can see it making that much for this weekend.
I just saw The Karate Kid . . . the 1984 classic, that is. I’m surprised just how well it holds up. Save yourselves several, several dollars by watching the original and best.
All I have to say is – RE-READ the article before it’s posted! When there are errors within the first sentence – there are problems! “It will a nostalgia-fest at the box office this weekend”? Shouldn’t that be “It will BE a nostalgia -fest”.
Also “Hollywood will finally have an weekend that dominates”? Last time I checked – words that start with “W” don’t get preceded by “an”.
Sad – very sad. Maybe those thirty something individuals that still get the weekend paper get it because the journalists that write the articles actually spell check and re-read their articles before publishing them…. just a thought.
Thank you, LV. It feels like this is getting worse on this site. Or maybe they care less about fixing their mistakes now. Either way it’s driving me up a wall.
Remaking The Karate Kid just so Will and Jada’s kid can star in a movie is just irritating. Loved the original and will boycott this remake.
Wow… this is a tough call for me.
I loved both the original Karate Kid & A-Team.
I wish I could go see both, but my life doesn’t really permit me to go to 2 movies in a month, let alone a weekend anymore.
I guess my vote goes to… A-Team. (On a very close call)
I’ll make sure to catch Karate Kid on DVD when it comes out