Image Credit: Stephen VaughanThis weekend is all about mind games. Chistopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) is playing a big one on audiences with Inception while Nicolas Cage is seeing if he can educate his student Jay Baruchel in The Sorcerer’s Apprentice. The results are likely to be markedly different. Inception is set to score big, though the long run time and narrow swath of the movie-going public that’s itching to take the trip are going against the challenging film. Apprentice, despite audience enjoyment, is suffering from a muddled marketing campaign and an unmotivated audience. The film opened to a weak $3.9 million on Wednesday, a number that will likely not help build the word-of-mouth that Disney was counting on. Read on for the numbers.
1. Inception: $60 million
Tracking shows that Chris Nolan’s mind-bending ride will open between $50 and $60 million. But that has to be low. Between the reviews, the word-of-mouth and the must-see factor of seeing it in its first weekend, the opening will likely be closer to $60 million. What the film, from Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures, has going against it is a two-hour-plus run time and a small demographic of moviegoers dying to see it. (Those who are are primarily men between 17-34.) The film is long, but it’s bowing in 3,792 theaters, including a record 197 IMAX locations.
2. Despicable Me: $33 million
This animated hit from Chris Meledandri’s Illumination Entertainment proves that Pixar hasn’t completely cornered the market on imaginative, fun kid fare. Audiences loved the film opening weekend and, during the week, have added some $15 million to the film’s coffers, which now stand at $72 million. With such a strong weekday showing, expect a 40 percent drop its sophomore session, which will clearly put the film north of $100 million after a mere ten days in theaters.
3. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: $18 million
The studio is hoping it can hit $20 million over the three-day frame but that may be wishful thinking. Audiences like the film, but a muddled marketing message coupled with weak opening numbers could torpedo its potential. Rated PG, the film stars Nicolas Cage as a wild wizard out to teach Jay Baruchel the tricks of the trade. Based on an animated short in Fantasia, the film should be doing better than this. It’s not helping that it is the first film under Disney’s new president of marketing’s regime. Hopefully round two will yield better results.
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse: $16 million
Closing in on $250 million, Twilight Saga: Eclipse is officially a blockbuster. The film is tracking right along with last year’s Twilight Saga: New Moon, but the summer release date should put it ahead of its predecessor soon. Expect another 50 percent drop this weekend.
5. Toy Story 3: $15 million
Closing in on $350 million, Toy Story 3 is officially Pixar’s highest grossing film. And don’t expect it to abate any time soon. The movie will likely drop off another 30 percent this frame, adding another $15 million to its coffers. My guess is it will come out as the highest-grossing film of the summer.
Check back this weekend for a full report.
I hope Inception will have really small drops as the weeks pass. It would really annoy me if The Last Airbender makes more money than Inception.
“Twilight Saga: Eclipse is officially a blockbuster”
Man, EW has a hard on for Twilight. Relax already.
Anyways, I’m expecting ‘Inception’to destroy the competition and it will be the second highest grossing movie of the summer behind ‘Toy Story 3′. No one can beat ‘Toy Story’and the power of kids.
Everyone has a hard on for Twilight. It’s a very successful franchise, doing immensely well at the box office, and it’s ridiculous for you to ask them to leave it out of the weekend numbers when it’s projected to pull in more than Toy Story 3 this weekend. I’m actually disappointed that for all the coverage EW has given the Twilight series over the past couple of years, they aren’t talking about how much BETTER (better movie, not talking about numbers) Eclipse was than it’s predecessors.
But whatever. Why don’t YOU relax already?
It’s not just kids who enjoy Pixar films. I’ve enjoyed them also & I have no kids and am now 60 years old. It’s the wonderful stories & the actors’voices that sell the films.
Some of you just can’t stand it can you. Twilight is successful. Holy sh*t, let me go off the deep end.
twilight is for little girls who are scared of penises
Um, what word of mouth? Inception hasn’t even opened, unless you mean the vocal internet fanboy buzz, which as Serenity, Kickass, and Snakes On A Plane proved, doesn’t always translate in people in the real world actually caring…
I think she was talking about people reading the reviews of the film that have come out this past week. I know I’ve seen the stellar grades it’s been getting and telling my dad(who thinks it “looks stupid”) that it’s been getting great reviews and, as it’s a movie written and directed by Nolan, it should be a very smart and thought-provoking film.
Although I am a huge sci fi fan, I’m not gung ho to see Inception. And I only know one female who wants to see it. AAll the rest of them are seeing Eclipse again. Inception may open up at 50 million, but it will drop 60-70 percent next weekend and probably struggle to break 100. Fanboys are a very niche market.
I don’t think Inception will benefit from much word of mouth. I just saw it and aside from spectacular effects, the story is emotionally uninvolving and resorts to waaaay too much shoot em up.
I expect Inception to open strong-but-not-too-strong and sustain itself based on strong word of mouth. I think that can overcome a lot of people’s skepticism of it.
Remember when the only people who cared how much a movie made were the financiers and exhibitors?
No and I’m over 40.
yes, i do. people seem more interested in grosses and whether the movie’s any good. kind of sad. the comments here sound like the comments of movie executives. they are way beyond oh “inception’s making a lot of money.”
I suspect Inception will open a bit higher than $60 mil.
Box Office Guru is predicting $73 mil
Are they usually right though??
No, do you remember that…?
Hopefully it will be in the $70-80 million range, but I expect it’ll have legs throughout its theatrical run.
Why does the run time have anything to do with it? The Dark Knight wasn’t exactly short. It will have an audience because I have to believe that the adults are ready to have their turn with a big summer movie.
Your correct The Dark Knight wasn’t a short movie but at the same time the film was apart of an established franchise (Batman) which means there was already a committed following. The movie Inception doesn’t have the same luxury of having a cult following.
What about Avatar, then?
Avatar worked on word of mouth because the experience was so incredible. Inception was amazing, but its not a revolutionary vision effects wise so it won tbe avatr. But i recomend seeing it if u like movies remotley
I agree, look at the top grossing films of all time, several are almost or more than 3 hours long.
Already have my Imax tickets for Inception! I really hope it does well, because it’s been pretty embarassing seeing that Grown-Ups made over $100 million. It’ll be refreshing to see an intelligent film become a blockbuster, rather than that unfunny comedy. I don’t even think The Sorceror’s Apprentice will make as much as EW is predicting. We all know that the only good children’s movies now come from Pixar. I feel bad for the kids that see what is probably a terrible movie.
Is it just me or was this article really awkwardly written? That first paragraph is just really bad.
I agree. It’s very clunky.
Won’t Matrix fans fock to watch this, seems similar.
I watched the Matrix and will watch this.
Seriously, I only realized the other day that The Sorcerer’s Apprentice is based on that part of Fantasia. When I first saw a trailer for it, I was like wait…is this the Fantasia thing? But then it didn’t seem like it all from what I saw, so I assumed it must have been something different and original. Then I read somewhere very recently that it IS based on that chapter in Fantasia, and I’m still thoroughly confused by it all and have no idea what to think of it. “Muddled marketing campaign” is exactly the right phrase for it.
INCEPTION will open with WAY LESS than 60 million.
less 55 million.
Inception looks really good, but what did anyone expect. The combination of Leo/Gordon-Levitt/Page/Nolan is too much to ignor.
And it still continues to amaze me how much people are wanting a movie to fail. I hope all the movies that deserve it do really well.
Yes, but we all have very different opinions on which movies “deserve it.”