Do we actually have an Oscar race on our hands after all? The King’s Speech won the Producers Guild of America award tonight, beating front-runner The Social Network. In the last three years, the PGA winner went on to win the Academy Award (The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, and No Country for Old Men), though in the three years before that, the PGA winner ended up losing the big Academy prize. Whatever ends up happening, it’s clear that despite The Social Network‘s critic-award sweep, we actually have a close contest for the Oscar. Other PGA winners included Waiting for “Superman” for documentary and Toy Story 3 for animated film, while Mad Men, Modern Family, The Pacific, and The Colbert Report picked up the TV prizes.
Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for all my Oscar predictions and updates.
I always root for you, Dave, but it’s hard when it’s a result I just don’t want to happen
Of course you prove again how unwise it is to bet against you, though.
Considering your predictions for the Oscars have had King’s Speech winning for the past 2 months, I find it odd you’d say there’s a race, or that The Social Network is the front-runner. Seems it’s following what you expected perfectly.
Wow!!!!! This is quite shocking. I would say this is well deserved however. I think The Social Network winning the Golden Globe last week may have been the worst thing for it because the Academy likes to distance themselves from the Hollywood Foreign Press.
And rightly so. Nominating St. Angie Ho and Johnny Depp for their universally panned performances in The Tourist.
There are still way too many dinosaurs around that can vote for a film about Facebook to win.
I have been saying this for the last month!! Thank you, thank you, thank you. No one in The Academy is going to vote for The Social Network.
Except those who appreciate good filmmaking.
@AP: Just because they would vote for The King’s Speech doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate good filmmaking. The Social Network may be a well made film, but so too is The King’s Speech, and if one wins the Oscar, it doesn’t mean the other is “bad.”
I’ve been hearing that comment since I started following the Oscars in the 80s. I’ve concluded that there will always be Dinosaurs in the Academy. It started for me with the remainders of those stars from the 30s and 40s now it’s mostly people from the 60′s and 70′s who oddly were releasing edgy movies (John Voight,Robert Duval, etc) and are now incredibly conservative.
What is your evidence that ONLY dinosaurs love the film? Yes, older people do, but so do younger ones. Check just about every major movie site audience poll (IMDB, Box Office Mojo, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Yahoo Movies) and The King beats the Network every time. You honestly can’t turn around and say these so-called tech-ignorant dinosaurs are stuffing the web ballot boxes.
The dinosaurs don’t always get their way. Witness an edgy indie war film “The Hurt Locker” winning last year. “Slumdog Millionare” winning over more conventional fare such as “Benjamin Button,” “No Country for Old Men” over baity stuff like “Atonement,” “The Departed” over “The Queen” etc.
But in any case one is far mistaken if one assumes that “The King’s Speech” appeals only to older audiences. Before the nominations have even been announced it is already close to 60 million at the box office and with increased business after the nominations it stands a good chance of passing “The Social Network.” You don’t do that soley by selling tickets to dinosaurs.
Actually you could. There’s been plenty of films that have become 100 million plus hits basically thanks to older audiences (and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that)- Driving Miss Daisy grossed 106 million dollars domestically back in 1986 (that adjusts to a 200 million dollar gross plus in 2010 dollars), Fried Green Tomatoes grossed 83 million in 1991, which adjusts to 125 million approximately in 2010;both Grumpy Old Men films grossed over 70 million dollars, and just look at Clint Estwood’s recent hits, who have thrived thanks to older people. The kind of films that are definitely not a consequence of just one demo, are massive phenomenons like AVATAR, TITANIC, MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST, etc….those films are truly way too big to have been successful thanks to just one segment of the population…
The King’s Speech is far superior to The Social Network. While the latter is good, the former is much better and more enjoyable. I hope it wins. In fact, King’s Speech, True Grit, Black Swan, Toy Story 3 are better than Social Network.
It’s silly to assume only old people love TKS; I’m 23, and I prefer it to TSN (which was also good, mind you).
Agreed. I am in my early 30s and think TKS is better than TSN. The audience was very diverse in age when I went to see TKS and everyone seemed like they really liked it.
People may admire TSN, but they love the King!
I’ve not seen TSN but I have seen The King’s Speech. I’m sure TSN might be a good movie, but I cannot fathom how a movie about horny nerds creating an online social network can be so awesome that it would be considered the Academy’s best movie of 2010. I want to reserve judgement until I’ve seen it, but I don’t hold hope that its better than a movie so powerfully moving and acted as King’s Speech was.
I have seen both, and I can assure you that The King’s Speech is a better film. I’m glad it finally getting some love.
Sorry, I disagree. The Social network is a terrific film. The writing is spectacular and endlessly quotable. The King’s Speech is one of those great movies I’ll probably never watch again. But I think I could watch The Social Network repeatedly.
I hate to disappoint you, but The Social Network has so much more to offer than “horny nerds” who create an online social network. It’s by far the best picture of the year in my opinion. The King’s Speech is very good, but in humble opinion The Social Network trumps it by a mile.
I also saw both films and I must say “horny nerds creating an online social network” sums up TSN pretty well to me. The Kings Speech For the win!
This is extremely shocking and dissapointing as TSN is the best film of 2010
I’m pleasantly surprised. Keep in mind to that a lot in recent years, the Globe winner has split from the Oscar winner. Happened last year, happened with No Country and Atonement.
I could be biased because I’m apparently one of the few people who was unimpressed with The Social Network. The script was excellent and I liked Eisenberg and Garfield. It felt like it couldn’t quite get over the hump of spitting out what it was trying to say. It’s hard to describe — basically, even though I like it, I certainly don’t love it and I think it’s overrated. And this is independent of how I feel about The King’s Speech.
The biggest problem with The Social Network was…Justin Timberlake. On the page, the role of Sean Parker had best supporting actor role all over it. JT didn’t bring enough charm-through-acting-with-the-right-amount-of-vicious-bite to the role that a more nuanced and experienced actor would have. Because of this, the 2nd half of TSN is nowhere near as great as the 1st half.
My problem with TSN is that I felt no emotional connection to it. It was well down and interesting, but to me the best movies are those that are well done, interesting and make me feel. The king’s speech is that movie in my opinion.
James, you couldn’t be more right about The Social Network. I feel the same way as you do.
I’ve been telling people that it’s not over.
All TKS needs is the unified support of the British Academy members — it’s a big deal and point of pride here in the UK at the moment — and perhaps a few additional votes of support, and it can seal the deal. It’s much easier to reach the threshold with 10 nominees instead of 5.
I’ve long predicted that the final vote would split, with TKS winning picture and TSN winning director and screenplay. We’ll see if I’m right.
Woohoo!! We finally got a race! Now I love both films very much but I have a huge soft spot for TKS and I’m the sure academy feels the same way. TKS is an inspiring movie and TSN has the zeitgeist factor. And based on what the academy loves to award through the years, TKS has the edge over TSN.
I say let’s split the difference. Best Picture to King’s Speech and best director to Fincher. Everyone wins!!
It’s starting to feel like that type of year. Plus, we’re about due for another director/picture split (1982, 1990, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006…2011?).
My thoughts exactly… While it used to be extremely rare for it to happen like you have shown in your post over the past 12 years it has become more common…
Except those of us who think “The Social Network” was the best (and most culturally relevant) film of 2010.
So every movie that wins has to take place in present day?
Neither TKS nor TSN deserve to take PGA because producer deal of the year is Inception. Risky original movie with long-term influence on the industry that paid off tremendously at the boxoffice and with critics. Oh, wait, PGA has snubbed one like that last year…and the year before! Shocker. So anti-genre bias is still strong I see.
That said, TSN will win Oscars because everyone is so brianwashed that it`s Citizen Kane or whatever by this point that change of heart is impossible. Plus Fincher will win DGA which is the best predictor of the outcome.
We’re about due for another director/picture split (Beatty/Chariots of Fire, Stone/Driving Miss Daisy, Speilberg/Shakespeare in Love, Soderburg/Gladiator, Polanski/Chicago, Lee/Crash).
Inception was not original (PAPRIKA, THE MATRIX, THE CELL, LUCID, RAPIDEYE come to mind) and it has not had any influence on the industry. How many films about dreams-within-dreams-within-dreams have we seen or are in development? And no matter how successful Inception was at the box office, studios will not risk big bucks on “original” stuff that only appeals to male nerds, like Inception (thank God those nerds saw the film again and again and again, otherwise it wouldn’t have made so much money) Inception was a one quadrant film that got lucky because that one quadrant fell for Nolan’s spinning top bait-and-switch and did somo truly impressive repeat business. But besides nerds, I don’t know anybody who cared for Inception.
Ho, ho, ho! What a surprise!
TKS is a contender but TSN will still win. Remember everyone can vote for the Best Picture Oscar and that should help TSN.
Hey, Karger – you’ve kept TKS at #1 throughout the season despite all the critics’ awards for TSN. Looks like TKS is getting the momentum at the right time. Good call on your part!
Dave just had a gut feeling (I did also) and TSN wasn’t going to get the same guild love that the critics were giving it. If Wahlburg gets nominated Best Actor on Tuesday and The Fighter wins Best Cast at SAG, we might have a 3way race on our hands (even though I’m still going with The King’s Speech for Best Cast at SAG).
Black Swan has a better chance of being part of the race than The Fighter. The Fighter failed to get a BAFTA nom.
Not really. The reaction to early Academy screenings of Black Swan were negative other than admiration for Portman (which the Academy will reward). I am predicting that it will end up being a 2way race, but at this point, I think only The Fighter has a chance of being the 3rd film at winning Best Picture. This week will make or break that chance.
One award is not momentum.
We`ll know if TKS is getting the momentum on Tuesday. If TSN gets bucketload of secondary nominations such as Sound, Score,etc, game over. It`s winning. And DGA and SAG are yet to have their say. Now if both DGA and SAG to the way of TKS, than trouble for TSN. But I honestly can`t see DGA going with Hooper over other 4 nominees. Fincher it is. Finally, SAG is rumoured to favor The Fighter which also bodes better for TSN than TKS because TKS needs advantage, not TSN still a frontrunner.
What is TSN gets a fair number of below-the-line nods, but TKS ultimately has a higher number?
I’m calling the DGA award for Fincher and the SAG award for The Fighter. That’ll really make everyone go cross-eyed.
I guess all those who have called Dave an idiot for keeping The King’s Speech at #1 on his Oscar predictions list will now rush to their computers to apologize.