Image Credit: Jaimie TruebloodWith practically every Y-chromosome in America focusing its attention on Super Bowl Sunday, don’t expect a very high score from the box office this weekend. The films that normally fare best against the big game are those that attract female moviegoers, particularly young, single women. Last year, the romantic drama Dear John debuted to a potent $30.5 million, drawing an opening-weekend audience that was 84 percent female. This year’s female-skewing offering, the new college thriller The Roommate, will likely make only half that, but the result should still be enough to lead the frame. The weekend’s other new release, the 3-D cave-diving thriller Sanctum, will have to settle for second place as its target audience virtually vanishes on Sunday. My predictions:
1. The Roommate: $15 million
Sony’s PG-13 thriller, about a college freshman (Friday Night Lights‘ Minka Kelly) who winds up living with a deranged roommate (Gossip Girl‘s Leighton Meester), should work well as counter-programming for those seeking a non-football diversion this weekend. The fact that the $8 million picture hasn’t screened for critics is discouraging but not unexpected, as The Roommate should be able to pull in its audience on the basis of its psycho-roomie premise alone. Recent horror thrillers that debuted on Super Bowl weekend include The Uninvited, The Eye, The Messengers, and When a Stranger Calls, which opened to $10.3 million, $12.4 million, $14.7 million, and $21.6 million, respectively. The Roommate seems poised to land somewhere in the middle of that pack.
2. Sanctum: $12 million
This Universal thriller, executive produced by James Cameron and filmed using the same cameras he employed for Avatar, has two main selling points: Cameron and 3-D. The mostly Aussie cast won’t fill any seats, and the film’s R rating could deter families. The most appropriate comparison points would be 2005′s The Cave, which debuted to $6.2 million, and 2006′s chilling The Descent, which started out with $8.9 million. Sanctum will benefit from 3-D surcharges (about 74 percent of its 2,789 theaters are projecting in the third dimension), and Cameron’s name should reel in a portion of the Comic-Con crowd. But the modest $30 million film will ultimately have to be content with cracking $10 million its first weekend.
3. No Strings Attached: $9 million
The R-rated romantic comedy held up well its second weekend, slipping only 32 percent. I don’t see any reason not to predict a similar drop this weekend, taking Paramount’s $25 million movie, starring Natalie Portman and Ashton Kutcher, past the $50 million mark.
4. The King’s Speech: $8 million
Last weekend, this Oscar front-runner (with its commanding 12 nominations) expanded to 2,557 theaters and grossed a royal $11.1 million. The British historical drama adds a few more theaters this weekend (27 to be precise), and should witness a slight drop of just under 30 percent as the R-rated film continues its march toward $100 million. By the end of this weekend, The King’s Speech will have likely accumulated around $84 million domestically.
5. The Rite: $6 million
The Anthony Hopkins exorcism thriller may have topped the charts last weekend (with $14.8 million), but it will undoubtedly plummet this weekend, as most horror films tend to do. The Roommate will steal much of The Rite‘s PG-13 audience, and its unsavory reviews won’t help it win many new fans.
The Roommate is probably going to get awful reviews, but I will go see it, dignity in tact or not. I love Leighton Meester, and I’m sure she will do as much as possible with the script.
Minka + Meester = Box office gold!
2 hot girls in one movie with the possability of a sex scene together is always gold.
Dignity not in tact.
I can’t imagine a film about a woman being abusive and possibly homicidal toward another woman being popular with female audiences.
This is a remake of Single White Female, correct?
Remake or ripoff, doesn’t matter. It’s a pg13 so it will lack the originals nudity and gore.
Was the original really that gory? All I remember was a high heel stuck into an eyeball, but not a whole lot of blood was shown, and the camera didn’t linger on the act, and as for nudity…I think I recall Jennifer Jason Leigh in a quasi-fetal position inside the shower, and you could see her boob, slightly…
@ Anthony G
I actually re-watched “SWF” this week, and there was a bit more nudity/sexual content than I remembered. (Obviously, I had to study the movie closely so I could report back.)
JJL’s boobs are in full view in the shower scene you mentioned. Bridget Fonda is fully nude within the first five minutes. There’s the scene where Fonda catches JJL masturbating. There’s the scene before Steve Weber’s murder where he ejaculates in JJL’s mouth (not explicit, but still). Finally, there’s the random scene where Fonda follows JJL to a weird sex club. (Not explicit, just weird.) Actually, it kinda sounds like you watched it on basic cable.
Anyway, my point is what’s the use of (unofficially) remaking “Single White Female” with a couple of younger, hotter actresses if you’re going to wind up PG-13-ing it up.
I agree. But what troubles me is how defanged these modern thrillers are. In the nineties, they weren’t churning masterpiece after masterpiece, but at least all those post-Fatal Attraction “so-and-so-from hell” thrillers had some thrills, and the R rating made it possible for the filmmakers to have more guts to show stuff that would shock the audience. Nowadays, it’s always hot women, hot men (I won’t insult the profession by calling them “actors”), preferably from random TV shows on the WB, being stalked and/or terrorized by other hot men/hot women, in horribly defanged, sanitized, PG-13 crap…
I remember The Hand That Rocks The Cradle (nanny from hell), Pacific Heights (tennant from hell), Mother’s Boys (divorced mother from hell), Basic Instinct (of course; the bisexual murder-suspect from hell, I guess?)…
“…they weren’t churning masterpiece after masterpiece, but at least all those post-Fatal Attraction “so-and-so-from hell” thrillers had some thrills, and the R rating made it possible for the filmmakers to have more guts to show stuff that would shock the audience.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself. And, OF COURSE, they hire hot TV performers to star in them…they’re almost certainly considerably cheaper. (Although I actually think Meester can do some things, she’s a FAR cry from JJL.)
Also, I thoroughly appreciate the “Hand that Rocks the Cradle” mention (a personal favorite of the genre.) I’d also add “The Stepfather” to your list (obviously, stepfather from hell) which, wouldn’t you know it, already had its own crappy, PG-13 remake.
It just looks entertaining. Nothing m
Nothing more nothing less.
This movie is going to be lame, but my friends and I are all going to see on Friday. What are the odds of that?
Any chance to see the one and only Blair Waldorf on the big screen gets the thumbs-up from me. I don’t even care if the movie’s bad (which, okay, it probably is) – Leighton Meester is the best.
Man, this weekend’s releases are even worse looking than last weekend. Can Winter end already?
I can’t wait to see it! !LM is an amazing actress. She basically carries Gossip Girl and deserves to be a huge star someday. Not sure why Hollywood has yet to realize how talented she is. Instead I see Blake Lively getting big roles and I am not sure why. Nothing against her, I just don’t think she is as strong an actress.
I thought Lively was terrific in The Town, but I haven’t seen Meester in anything yet.
Leighton Meister? Who cares! Its all about Minka Kelly… Minka… mmmm Minka….
I liked this movie….. when it was called Single White Female!!!!!
ANy word if there is a Minka Kelly – Leighton Meester love scene???
Going to see The Roommate tomorrow, pretty excited about it. Minka Kelly + Leighton Meester = good time at the movies
Wow, everything people say about January movies is true. It’s a dumping ground. When do good movies come out again?
What month is this?
Hmm, I’m a 19 year old straight female and I’d much rather watch the Superbowl thank you.
Ditto…or well, I’m 22 year old straight female, and I would much rather watch the Superbowl. Go Pack!
What was so important that you had to acknowledge you are straight? Is it because if you are a female and like watching football, then you must be a lesbian? Get a grip on reality, little girls.
A lot of lesbians look/act like men. I’m thinking the majority of Super Bowl fans are probably men. So if you can’t see that, you’re the one who has to get a grip on reality.
@whatevs,
You really need to get out more and meet more lesbians then. They do not all “look/act like men.”
I think No Strings Attached will hold up well with the potential to bring in as much as 9.6 million dollars and The Roommate, a cheesy ripoff of SWF, will be number one, but not by much- 11million, maybe less. Football and bad word of mouth will keep it from making 15 million.
Lame rip-off/remake/homage/whatever of a decent-but-nothing-special film from the nineties that at least had an R rating to have the courage of its convictions. While the original had two decent actresses, including the inexplicably-never-Oscar-nominated Jeniffer Jason-Leigh, the new one has two gorgeous TV bimbos that couldn’t act their way out of a paper bag.
No, thanks
Couldn’t have said it better myself.