BAFTA winners: Who will repeat at the Oscars?

Last year, 12 of the 18 major BAFTA winners repeated with victories in their corresponding categories at the Oscars. (For instance, the BAFTAs presaged the Academy Award winners for best picture, director, supporting actor and actress, original screenplay, costume design, art direction, sound, visual effects, score, editing, and animated film.) So now that this year’s BAFTA winners have been announced, who will also score an Oscar win on Feb. 27? Let’s split the winners up into three categories: Will repeat, could repeat, and won’t repeat.

WILL REPEAT
Best Picture, The King’s Speech After its sweep of the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards, an Oscar win is inevitable.
Best Actor, Colin Firth Duh.
Best Original Screenplay, The King’s Speech Christopher Nolan took the Writers Guild prize for Inception, but that’s only because Speech writer David Seidler wasn’t eligible.
Best Adapted Screenplay, The Social Network Aaron Sorkin is the surest winner from the critically-acclaimed Facebook drama.
Best Animated Film, Toy Story 3 No doubt about it.
Best Costume Design, Alice in Wonderland The biggest costumes usually win the Oscar too.
Best Sound, Inception It has the perfect combination of spectacle and prestige.
Best Visual Effects, Inception A complete no-brainer.

COULD REPEAT
Best Director, David Fincher There’s a chance Tom Hooper will follow up his DGA trophy with an Oscar, but the more experienced Fincher should emerge victorious.
Best Actress, Natalie Portman I still think Annette Bening is within striking distance of an upset, but Portman certainly has the edge.
Best Supporting Actor, Geoffrey Rush My money’s still on Christian Bale, but if there’s a spoiler, Rush is it.
Best Score, The King’s Speech It’s a three-way race for the Oscar between Speech, Social Network, and Inception.
Best Cinematography, True Grit Barring a King’s Speech sweep, the Coen brothers’ longtime DP Roger Deakins should finally win his first Oscar.
Best Editing, The Social Network Again, unless King’s Speech runs the table, Network is the best bet.
Best Art Direction, Inception Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland crew has a great shot at edging out Inception and Speech here.

WON’T REPEAT
Best Supporting Actress, Helena Bonham Carter Melissa Leo isn’t the lock she once was, but if anyone can beat her, it’s Hailee Steinfeld or maybe Amy Adams.
Best Foreign Language Film, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo No chance—it wasn’t nominated.
Best Makeup, Alice in Wonderland Ditto. I still don’t understand how this film didn’t even earn a nod.

Dave on Twitter: @davekarger


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  • Woot

    Why is Natalie Portman a should repeat and Colin Firth a Will repeat? Annette Bening has garnered any momentum.

    • DL

      Yeah, I don’t get this either. Portman has swept every award, same as Firth. She’s a Will Repeat in my book.

      • Lucy

        Portman hasn’t swept everything. She didn’t garner many major critic’s awards. In fact, Bening just picked two up this week (she also won the Comedy Golden Globe). The BAFTA and Oscar Best Actress categories have different nominees (Julianne Moore out at Oscar, Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman in, etc), and that could make a big difference. Then, Bening has a huge base of support within the actual Academy. She’s well-respected, many think she’s overdue (4th nomination), and this could be her last shot at a Best Actress Oscar. Portman will likely win, but Bening could upset.

      • Aaron

        In my humble opinion, if Annette Bening can’t win against the already rewarded Hilary Swank (in a competent, if uninspiring performance), then there’s no way she’s going to beat Natalie Portman in what is arguably the performance of the year. I’m sorry, it’s just not going to happen. The woman has won BFCA, GG, SAG, and now BAFTA. What else does she need to do to be considered a lock?!?!

      • fancypants

        Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby was a great, inspired performance. That’s why she won a 2nd time.

      • @Lucy

        “Didn’t garner many major critic’s awards.” Huh?
        She won Best Actress from the Austin, Boston, Central Ohio, Chicago, Dallas, Florida, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Washington DC Film Critics Associations. I’d say ten isn’t “not many.”

    • t.g. pierson

      Julianne Moore swept awards in 2002, and Julie Christie swept in 2007, and neither went on to win the Oscar. I think Bening has an excellent shot of winning.

      • Jose

        But Kidman and Cotillard (who ended up winning the Oscar) did win the BAFTA.

      • Woot

        Wrong. Marion Cotillard won the BAFTA in 2007, the eventual Oscar winner. Renne Zellweger won the SAG in 2002, and Julianne Moore wasn’t even nominated for the BAFTA in 2002 (Nicole Kidman won the BAFTA and the Oscar.) Portman has won every major award that Firth has, yet Firth is apparently a virtual lock and Portman might win. I can’t see her losing at this point. The closet to sweeping an not winning the Oscar is Mickey Rourke who won the Golden Globe, Spirt and BAFTA. He didn’t win the SAG however, Sean Penn did (who also won the oscar.)

      • Oscar Historian

        I’d say the closet to a critic’s sweep but not an Oscar was Sissy Spacek for “In The Bedroom”. She won awards from the New York, Los Angeles and Vancouver film critics associations, AFI and Broadcast Critics awards, Sundance and Independent Spirit Awards, and a Golden Globe – then lost the Oscar to Halle Berry.

      • Lincoln

        Julie did not really sweep. Marion got the BAFTA, the Globe, and a lot of film critics awards too.

      • Alex

        What about Michelle Pffier who lost out the Oscar to Jessica Tandy

    • RJM

      Is Karger the only person who keeps pushing Annette Bening?! Natalie deserves it like none other.

      • Beau

        Yep, Benning sure doesn’t need to run any ads. Karger’s running them for her. Sad.

      • Jennifer

        IDK about Benning, but he’s certainly the only one I’ve seen who thinks Hailee Steinfeld has a chance at Best Supporting Actress. I’m not saying there won’t be an upset here, but it’s far more likely to be Amy Adams. (Though I’d love to see Jacki Weaver take it – that would be so out of left field.)

      • Jason

        Actually Pete Hammond is the one in the tank for Bening. Now he thinks Bening lost BAFTA because Moore was also nominated and took votes away from her. That’s total crap. They knew they had a chance to shake up the Oscar race, so they would have obviously only voted for Bening.If she pulls off an upset, Hammond is the first person she should thank.

    • Liza

      Exactly. How is Bening within striking distance of an upset? Her performance in TKAA was nothing special; I’m still wondering why she’s even nominated. Best Actress belongs to Natalie this year. She deserves it.

      • stiffy

        I’m with you two gals (Liza and Jennifer). Annette B. was just ‘alright’ in TKAA. She wasn’t the main actress in it. The movie is about the KIDS (even in the title) and NOT titled ‘the lesbian mom is alright’…the daughter should have been nominated in it, not Benning’s character. Also, I’m rooting for Jackie Weaver in Animal Kingdom. Weaver is amazing in this great movie.

      • California

        I just saw The Kids Are Alright and I was underwhelmed by Benning’s performance (though I think I was only underwhelmed because of all the buzz, she was quite good). If I were to pick someone to have an award from that movie, it would be Moore or the actress who played the daughter. I absolutely believe Portman deserves the Oscar.

    • A-K87

      The bigger question is how anyone can describe that talented girl from True Grit as a ‘Supporting Actress’… the whole thing is a bad joke.

  • Jason

    It would be a shame if Portman becomes only the second person in history to win Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA and not win the Oscar. The category is Best Actress in a Leading Role, not Best Actress Who’s Never Won an Oscar. Sentiment is the only possible reason Bening could win this.

    • Woot

      It would. Who was the first person to due so?

      • Jonathan Marchetti

        i think he’s talking about Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind.

    • sam

      sentiment…and performance.

  • dee123

    I think HBC has a much better chance of winning than Geoffrey Rush.

    • Bao

      HBC was just average, so-so, even Barbara Hershey was better. Melissa Leo will win, but I’ll keep my finger crossed for Amy Adams

    • Jenn

      I agree. If people want to honor The Fighter, Bale is the most obvious choice. I think all of The Fighter vote will go to him. Leo’s performance is a bit more controversial-and she has a costar in her category taking away votes. I just don’t see people voting for Leo or Adams but not voting for Bale. He is the performance people think of when they think of The Fighter.

      • Jenn

        Edited to add-I think voters will be a lot quicker to check off HBC as part of a sweep than Rush. Bale’s performance would be harder to ignore-even though Rush is more worthy than HBC. Rush already has an Oscar.

      • Mike

        Nothing against Amy Adams but I don’t think she has much of a shot. Has she even won anything this season? I would think Jaki Weaver has a better shot than her.

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  • Samantha

    I’m not shocked a BRITISH film won best film at the BRITSIH awards. And, The Social Network will win Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, so maybe with the combination of that, it should win Best Picture.

    • Claire

      I really hope so! I liked the King’s Speech but it just wasn’t as good as TSN.

    • Bao

      Yes, tsn was so much better.

  • MWeyer

    Given Leo’s recent campaign seemingly backfiring, can see Carter and Steinfeld taking away votes to allow Adams to sneak through. Still betting on Leo but something to consider.

  • sean

    The social network will win score, editing, and director…no repeat…and natalie portmans an obvious win

  • Butters

    natalie portman would never have been nominated for this role back in the80s 90s.

    • paulie

      Because she was four years old?

      • Beau

        LOL!

      • Tin

        Excellent!

      • Aaron

        LMFAO! Priceless!!!

  • Radzinsky

    “Inception” won Best Art Direction, not “Alice in Wonderland.”

    • Jose

      I was about to comment on that.

      You’d think that’s something Karger would know (no offense to him).

      But I wonder what are Inception’s chances of winning in that category?

      • Dave Karger

        Thanks guys…I was going off an incorrect list of winners.

      • Jose

        No problem.

      • Jose

        But Dave, even though Alice was shut out of some other awards (makeup, score, sound) and has negative reviews, you still think it has a chance of winning art direction and costume design?

      • Mike

        I think the Academy goes for more over the top outfits and set decorations, despite bad reviews. Look at Memoirs of a Geisha, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Marie Antoinette, Sleepy Hollow

  • Pete

    I am completely shocked and appalled that King’s Speech won best score over Inception, Alice AND Black Swan. It’s completely bloody ridiculous.

    • bee

      ditto. I thought Inception should’ve had it. Shame.

  • Sam

    I really don’t want The King’s Speech to win. If it does, people will look back on this year as one along with 1941, 1956, 1976, 1994, 1998, and 2005 where the Oscars got it wrong.

    • Woot

      I agree, but probably to a lesser degree. I know a lot of people who loved The King’s Speech.

      • poop

        @Sam, I have to agree with you completely (except that the biggest years the Academy got it wrong were 1977, 1979 and 1980 in my opinion), but most people think that people will look back and think that The Social Network should have won. I think people will look back and say that Inception should have won.

      • Aaron

        1979 and 1980—YES! Kramer vs. Kramer and Ordinary People triumphing over masterpieces like Apocalypse Now and Raging Bull is a raving disaster…

        …but 1977? I LOVE Annie Hall! Probably Woody Allen’s greatest film (at least top 3). But I’m not the biggest Star Wars fan, I guess..
        .

        I agree that The King’s Speech is one of the weaker choices for picture. I don’t hate the film by any means, but I’m betting 10-15 years from now that the films we are still talking about will be Black Swan, The Social Network, Inception, & Toy Story 3.

    • paulie

      TKS is a movie a lot of people respond to very powerfully and emotionally. It’s a more personal story; that doesn’t make it a lesser story. I think a lot of its detractors are just going, Hmm, it’s a British period piece so it must be stuffy and old-fashioned, where actually in a lot of ways it’s very funny, very intimate and very moving. I think this is not a “mistake” year — I think it’s a year where there’s more than one worthy contender, which is a very different (and very welcome) thing.

      • Woot

        I unfortunately agree with you. It’s unfortunate to me because I disliked The King’s Speech, but I completely understand why people enjoy it. I think it’s great for the movie industry when it’s difficult to definitively say which movie is the best.

      • Amber

        I agree that there is more than one worthy contender. I actually realy liked all of the nominated films that I’ve seen. My husband is a loyal TKS enthusiast. I liked TKS but preferred TSN. So I understand both arguments.

      • Beau

        Well, let’s just throw ‘em all a curve….and watch Black Swan beat ‘em both! God, I’d laugh my azz off!

    • sally

      People will say “Thank god that overrated facebook movie didn’t win.”

      • Sam

        I found The King’s Speech overrated, actually. Yes, I thought it was perfectly good, but nothing exceptional with the possible exception of Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush. It was humorous at times and well crafted, but it did not resonate with me. I saw it and honestly could not see what everyone had raved about. I found The Social Network to be 10x better. It’s not an emotional movie, but it impacted me a lot more. Oh well, as long as it is recognized some way it can’t be all that bad.

    • Angela

      Not everyone thinks Oscar got it wrong all of those years. Forrest Gump deserved to win, IMO, and even though Saving Private Ryan should’ve won, it doesn’t annoy me as much as it apparently annoys others that Shakespeare in Love won, ditto for Crash in 2005. I’ve know people that really love The King’s Speech, so obviously some people think it would deserve to win.

  • kofstar

    What a surprise the old members of the Academy would award a non-cinematic, British, period piece. King’s Speech will just become one of those movies that shouldn’t have one the award.

    • sally

      Non-cinematic?? You don’t have any idea what you are talking about, do you?

    • Abbey

      a. It’s “won”.
      b. NON-CINEMATIC?
      c. Have you seen the movie?

  • Q.H.

    The BAFTAs took place just after I wrote my Oscar predictions blog. Turns out we matched on quite a number of awards, so I’m feeling pretty good about a lot of my picks!

  • Jeremy

    I’m pulling for Natalie to win the Oscar. It would be a shame if she lost just because people feel she’ll have another chance to win since she’s so young. How do people know she’ll be nominated in the future? I would put Michelle Williams,Nicole Kidman, and Jennifer Lawrence above Annette this year. I feel Natalie earned her awards through her performance in this film not just because she has contacts within the industry and is feeling being “owed an Oscar”

    • paulie

      I would have to agree. Haven’t seen “Rabbit Hole,” but both Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams were extraordinary. I thought Bening did good work in TKAAR, but there’s no way she’d be considered the spoiler for this if it weren’t for the idea that she’s owed one. The Academy should’ve given her an Oscar for “Bugsy” or “The Grifters” (maybe both), but why now? Answer: Warren Beatty’s clout. Period.

      • Prunella Von Schleidlhaagen

        I’ve seen all the nominated performances, and for me the only way it would be ok if Portman lost is if Lawrence won.

      • Jethro

        She wasn’t even nominated for Bugsy! The Grifter’s, American Beauty and Being Julia are her nominated roles.

    • CC

      I would put Natalie fifth in the category, and it’s a very strong category overall. She was over-the-top. My pick for the win would be Nicole Kidman, with Annette Bening a close second, then Michelle Williams, then Jennifer Lawrence.

      Annette deserves an Oscar for her performance. Her stillness in the dinner scene was phenomenal. Outstanding and subtle.

      As for Best Supporting Actor, since Christian Bale and I have been “done, professionally” for a while, I don’t care if he loses. He was good in The Fighter, but I’d go with Ruffalo and Rush over him.

      • Ahane

        U R INSANE! Glad you aren’t picking my movies to see.

      • Woot

        It was subtle, but it also didn’t require much. The role wasn’t difficult. Any actress could have played the part. Annette played it perfectly, it just wasn’t that hard to do it.

      • @Woot

        Who are you to say that it wasn’t difficult? You didn’t give the performance; you’re just basing it off how difficult it looked. A good performance isn’t just about how much effort it required. One, all actors have different strengths, so what’s hard for one person might be something another actor could sleepwalk through. And also, the fact that it seemed so effortless shows how good Annette Bening was; she was completely in her character and didn’t have to be histrionic in order to convince us of that.

    • Angela

      I think Annette Bening deserves an Oscar for her performance in The Kids Are All Right, not just because she’s “owed” one. That said, Natalie Portman was also amazing, so I’ll be happy to see either one take it home.

      • Bruce

        Listen for the gasps in the audience as the envelope is opened and the winner of the Best Actress Oscar is read out: Annette Bening!

  • Steph

    If Geoffrey Rush beats Christian Bale for the Oscar, I will feed a kitten to an ATM.

    • xara

      Big LOL at the American Psycho reference!

    • bee

      LOL. and I agree Christian deserves the award.

  • matt

    Alice didnt get a make-up nom because most of the make-up was computer generated

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