Two newcomers are stepping up to the box office plate this weekend: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 and the horror “spoof” Scary Movie 5. It will likely be a close match between the films for the top spot, which will be vacated by last weekend’s champ, Evil Dead — in fact, the horror film may miss the Top 5 entirely. Overall, it should be another weekend stuffed with healthy holdovers as six films are headed for grosses above $10 million for the second frame in a row.
Here’s how the weekend may shake out:
1. 42 – $21 million
Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures’ $40 million drama about Major Baseball League’s first African-American player, Jackie Robinson, doesn’t have a major star like Brad Pitt to draw audiences, but it may actually finish ahead of Pitt’s baseball vehicle Moneyball, which began its run with $19.5 million in September 2011. Sports fans, history buffs, and even families should turn out for 42, which will also benefit from its appeal with African-American crowds. Out in 3,002 theaters, 42 may bat up $21 million over the Friday-to-Sunday period.
2. Scary Movie 5 — $18 million
If it’s possible to have any sort of pedigree in the “spoof” genre that’s thrived over the past decade, the Scary Movie franchise has it. After all, it was Scary Movie that began the wave of comedies like Epic Movie, Date Movie, and Meet the Spartans. But Scary Movie 5, which is being distributed by Weinstein’s Dimension, is arriving a full seven years after Scary Movie 4, which debuted with $40.2 million, and it’s safe to assume that the sequel won’t reach those heights. That’s okay, though. The film cost only $20 million and, thanks to a buzzy ad campaign involving Lindsay Lohan and Charlie Sheen, should be able to draw the same teen crowd that helped A Haunted House open to $18.1 million in January. Out in 2,402 theaters, Scary Movie 5 could take in a similar $18 million.
3. The Croods — $16.5 million
For yet another weekend, The Croods has no new family competition to battle. The $135 million animated film may fall by a scant 20 percent to $16.5 million, which would give it about $146 million total.
4. Jurassic Park 3D — $12.5 million
The Steven Spielberg-directed classic, which cost Universal only $10 million to convert to 3-D, fared well last weekend with $18.4 million. If it falls in the same range as last year’s Titanic 3D, which dipped 31 percent in its sophomore frame, Jurassic Park will stomp away with another $12.5 million, enough for a $35 million total.
5. G.I. Joe: Retaliation — $11 million
Paramount’s $130 million action sequel dropped by 49 percent last weekend, and, without any new action competition hitting theaters, its week-to-week drop will likely soften a bit. A 45 percent drop would give Retaliation an $11 million frame and send it right past the $100 million mark domestically.
Evil Dead, meanwhile, should finish outside the Top 5. The $17 million horror remake already exhibited frontloaded tendencies last weekend, and given the built-in fan anticipation that surrounded its release (not to mention the frontloaded nature of horror films in general), Evil Dead could drop by 60 percent in its second frame, which would lift its total to $43 million.
Check back to EW all weekend for full box office coverage, and follow me on Twitter at @gradywsmith for more box office conversation throughout the week.