Three new wide releases are seeking to divide and conquer moviegoers this weekend, offering up stories with minimal audience overlap. Fox’s comedy The Other Woman is being marketed squarely at ladies who love laughs, Relativity’s Brick Mansions is gunning for action-oriented guys, and Lionsgate’s creepy The Quiet Ones is out to get fear-seeking teens. But they could all get trounced by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, a three-weekend champion that still has plenty of box office muscle left to flex before The Amazing Spider-Man 2 swoops into theaters next weekend.
Here’s a look at what might happen:
1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier – $15 million
Cap must be using his indestructible shield at the box office. Last weekend, Winter Soldier fell a mere 38 percent to $25.6 million, bringing its three-week gross to a mighty $200.5 million. Even if the movie drops 40 percent this weekend as it creeps closer to saturating its target audience, that would mean another $15 million haul. On a busier weekend, that would be small change; in this late April frame, it’ll probably be enough to grab the top spot away from…
2. The Other Woman – $13 million
Cameron Diaz’s last hit, Bad Teacher, opened to $31.6 million in June 2011. But that movie had far more guy appeal than this $40 million rom-com about the three ladies (Diaz, Leslie Mann, and Kate Upton) tricked by the same cheating dude (Nikolaj Coster-Waldau). A closer reference point might be 2011′s Something Borrowed, a similarly themed rom-com starring Kate Hudson, that opened to $13 million before petering out to a $39 million gross.
3. Rio 2 – $11 million
As the only kid pic in wide release, Fox’s animated bird tale should keep gliding through its third weekend, dropping around 50 percent from last weekend’s $22.2 million nest egg.
4. Brick Mansions – $10 million
Paul Walker’s tragic death has left this movie without its biggest star; Relativity has even opted to forgo a premiere to make a donation to Walker’s Reach Out WorldWide charity. Still, this remake of a 2004 French thriller promises a lean, high-octane action experience – the kind of movie Walker’s Fast & Furious fans like. With a $28 million budget, the foreign-funded thriller has a shot at recouping its budget before summer tentpoles force it out of theaters.
5. Heaven Is for Real - $8 million
After a strong $22.5 million showing last weekend, Sony’s true-life inspirational tale could hit a second-weekend speed bump. Fox’s Son of God opened to an even mightier $25.6 million last month before dropping 59.5 percent in its second frame. If the same fate befalls Heaven, the movie should end up in the $8 million to $9 million range — nearly quadruple its tiny $12 million budget.
There’s a chance that Lionsgate’s The Quiet Ones could creep into the top five. But with no name stars and a kinda-based-on-a-sort-of-true premise that looks eerily familiar to past horror movies, the movie is likely to open to a quiet $6 million. On the specialty side, the thriller Blue Ruin and the Tom Hardy drama Locke will duke it out in limited release.
Check back this weekend for up-to-the-minute updates.